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Wednesday, August 3, 2022 – It appears the rain has started beating Deputy President William Ruto, 6 days to the August 9th General Election.
This is after most opinion polls indicated that his rival Raila Odinga will win the August elections.
This was confirmed by renowned political commentator Mutahi Ngunyi, who has predicted Raila’s win in the first round.
Through his YouTube channel, Ngunyi said his analysis indicated Raila would get 51.3% while his main competitor William Ruto would get 45%.
According to the political commentator known for his tyranny of numbers analogy, analysis of the previous elections shows that Raila has always gotten 44% with or without Mt Kenya votes.
“In 2007, Raila got 44% of the vote, same with 2013 and 2017. A banana tree does not give you bananas today and tomorrow and expect to get oranges the day after,” Ngunyi said.
He said looking at the voter turnout for the past 30 years; the 2022 election will witness a 71% turnout which translates to 15.6 million voters who will take part in the August poll.
Ngunyi assumed that Raila would begin at 6.9 million votes. In comparison, Ruto will begin at 8.1 million votes assuming that the Kenya Kwanza candidate retains all votes that Jubilee garnered in the last election.
Ngunyi further looked at the historical voting pattern of the Mt Kenya region, concluding that whenever votes are split, candidates in that particular election share votes on a 66:33 % ratio.
With this in mind, he deduced that Ruto would get 66 % of the mountain votes, bringing his total votes to seven million.
On the other hand, Raila would get 33% of Mt Kenya votes which translates to 1.4 million votes bringing his total count to 8 million.
The Kenyan DAILY POST.